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2024 President · Nebraska

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (IND)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 57%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.86% · Republican 59.32%

R+20.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 57 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.858 − 59.318 = -20.460
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-20.460) = 2.460
  4. Absolute miss = |2.460| = 2.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89153, race ID 8845 (538 database).

population: lv