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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,738 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 45.7%

D+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 45.7 = 3.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 3.60 − (-0.217) = 3.817
  4. Absolute miss = |3.817| = 3.817

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89147, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv