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2024 President · Nevada

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 845 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 50.5%

R+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 50.5 = -3.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = -3.60 − (-3.099) = -0.501
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.501| = 0.501

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89146, race ID 8857 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv