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2024 Senate · Michigan

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,136 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 46.3%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 46.3 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (0.341) = 2.859
  4. Absolute miss = |2.859| = 2.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89145, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv