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2024 President · Michigan

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,136 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 49.2%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 49.2 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-1.414) = 0.514
  4. Absolute miss = |0.514| = 0.514

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89145, race ID 8820 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv