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2024 President · national

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 3,490 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 49.1%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 49.1 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (-1.472) = -0.428
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.428| = 0.428

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89141, race ID 8914 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes