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2024 President · Florida

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.1% · Republican 48.2%

R+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.1 − 48.2 = -5.10
  2. Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
  3. Signed miss = -5.10 − (-13.100) = 8.000
  4. Absolute miss = |8.000| = 8.000

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89125, race ID 8778 (538 database).

population: lv