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2024 Senate · Michigan

Mitchell · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · sample size not reported · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.341) = -2.341
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.341| = 2.341

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89123, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv