2024 House · New Hampshire
St. Anselm · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,384 respondents · Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 43%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.93% · Republican 46.97%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.934 − 46.974 = 5.960
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.960) = 2.040
- Absolute miss = |2.040| = 2.040
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89112, race ID 9781 (538 database).
population: lv