2024 House · New Hampshire
St. Anselm · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,407 respondents · Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 43%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.99% · Republican 45.93%
D+8.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 53.995 − 45.932 = 8.063
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (8.063) = -1.063
- Absolute miss = |-1.063| = 1.063
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89112, race ID 9780 (538 database).
population: lv