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2024 Governor · New Hampshire

St. Anselm · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 2,791 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.27% · Republican 53.61%

R+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.272 − 53.611 = -9.339
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-9.339) = 6.339
  4. Absolute miss = |6.339| = 6.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89112, race ID 9542 (538 database).

population: lv