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2024 President · Wisconsin

Marquette Law School · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 834 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 49%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 49 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.859) = 2.859
  4. Absolute miss = |2.859| = 2.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89103, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv