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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

Susquehanna · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 45.8%

D+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 45.8 = 2.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 2.80 − (-0.217) = 3.017
  4. Absolute miss = |3.017| = 3.017

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89102, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv