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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

CNN/SSRS · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 819 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.217) = 3.217
  4. Absolute miss = |3.217| = 3.217

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89100, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv