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2024 Senate · Michigan

CNN/SSRS · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 726 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 42%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.341) = 5.659
  4. Absolute miss = |5.659| = 5.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89099, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv