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2024 President · Michigan

CNN/SSRS · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 726 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.414) = 6.414
  4. Absolute miss = |6.414| = 6.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89099, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv