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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Monmouth · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 824 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.710) = 0.710
  4. Absolute miss = |0.710| = 0.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89098, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: rv