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2024 President · Nebraska CD-3

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 70%

R+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.44% · Republican 76.03%

R+53.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 70 = -45.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.436 − 76.034 = -53.598
  3. Signed miss = -45.00 − (-53.598) = 8.598
  4. Absolute miss = |8.598| = 8.598

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89094, race ID 8838 (538 database).

population: lv