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2024 President · Nebraska CD-1

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 408 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 51%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 55.49%

R+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.522 − 55.487 = -12.965
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-12.965) = 4.965
  4. Absolute miss = |4.965| = 4.965

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89092, race ID 8836 (538 database).

population: lv