2024 President · national
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,446 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.472) = 2.472
- Absolute miss = |2.472| = 2.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89088, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes