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2024 House · Colorado

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 45.8%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 48.95%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 45.8 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.220 − 48.954 = -0.734
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (-0.734) = 2.434
  4. Absolute miss = |2.434| = 2.434

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89086, race ID 9983 (538 database).

population: lv