2024 President · New Jersey
Rutgers-Eagleton · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 478 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 37%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.06%
D+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 37 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 51.974 − 46.065 = 5.909
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (5.909) = 8.090
- Absolute miss = |8.090| = 8.090
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89084, race ID 8851 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv