2024 President · Michigan
Suffolk · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 47.4%
R+0.4
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 47.4 = -0.40
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = -0.40 − (-1.414) = 1.014
- Absolute miss = |1.014| = 1.014
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89082, race ID 8820 (538 database).
population: lv