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2024 Senate · Texas

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%

R+8.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-8.498) = 4.497
  4. Absolute miss = |4.497| = 4.497

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89081, race ID 9530 (538 database).

population: lv