2024 President · Texas
Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 51%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-13.683) = 5.683
- Absolute miss = |5.683| = 5.683
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89081, race ID 8889 (538 database).
population: lv