Skip to content

2024 Senate · Massachusetts

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 56.2% · Republican 35.8%

D+20.4

The certified result

Democrat 59.81% · Republican 40.00%

D+19.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.2 − 35.8 = 20.40
  2. Actual margin = 59.815 − 40.003 = 19.812
  3. Signed miss = 20.40 − (19.812) = 0.588
  4. Absolute miss = |0.588| = 0.588

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89077, race ID 9514 (538 database).

population: lv