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2024 President · Massachusetts

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 60.2% · Republican 37.2%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.22% · Republican 36.02%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60.2 − 37.2 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.219 − 36.023 = 25.196
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (25.196) = -2.196
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.196| = 2.196

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89077, race ID 8811 (538 database).

population: lv