2024 Senate · New York
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,089 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 32%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.81% · Republican 40.52%
D+18.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 32 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 58.815 − 40.524 = 18.291
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (18.291) = 6.709
- Absolute miss = |6.709| = 6.709
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89076, race ID 9524 (538 database).
population: rv