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2024 President · Texas

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,108 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-13.683) = 8.683
  4. Absolute miss = |8.683| = 8.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89075, race ID 8889 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv