2024 Senate · Florida
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,094 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 49%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%
R+12.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-12.778) = 8.778
- Absolute miss = |8.778| = 8.778
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89074, race ID 9509 (538 database).
population: rv