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2024 President · Pennsylvania

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,062 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.710) = 4.710
  4. Absolute miss = |4.710| = 4.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89073, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv