2024 President · California
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,139 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 63% · Republican 34%
D+29.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.47% · Republican 38.33%
D+20.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63 − 34 = 29.00
- Actual margin = 58.468 − 38.333 = 20.135
- Signed miss = 29.00 − (20.135) = 8.865
- Absolute miss = |8.865| = 8.865
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89072, race ID 8762 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv