2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,249 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.217) = 6.217
- Absolute miss = |6.217| = 6.217
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89066, race ID 9527 (538 database).
population: lv