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2024 President · Pennsylvania

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,273 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.710) = 1.710
  4. Absolute miss = |1.710| = 1.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89066, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv