Skip to content

2024 President · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,470 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 48.7%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 48.7 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-0.859) = 0.259
  4. Absolute miss = |0.259| = 0.259

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89064, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv