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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,299 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 46.5%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 46.5 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (-0.217) = 2.317
  4. Absolute miss = |2.317| = 2.317

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89063, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv