Skip to content

2024 Senate · Michigan

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 983 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 47.1%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 47.1 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (0.341) = 1.459
  4. Absolute miss = |1.459| = 1.459

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89059, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv