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2024 President · Georgia

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,429 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 50.2%

R+3.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 50.2 = -3.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -3.10 − (-2.192) = -0.908
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.908| = 0.908

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89058, race ID 8781 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv