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2024 President · national

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 3,032 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49.5%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49.5 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-1.472) = -1.028
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.028| = 1.028

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89056, race ID 8914 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes