2024 President · Wisconsin
CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,552 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%
R+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.859) = 5.859
- Absolute miss = |5.859| = 5.859
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89055, race ID 8905 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: a