Skip to content

2024 President · Virginia

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 2,027 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.767) = 3.234
  4. Absolute miss = |3.234| = 3.234

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89054, race ID 8895 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: a