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2024 President · Ohio

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 3,120 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-11.208) = 4.207
  4. Absolute miss = |4.207| = 4.207

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89051, race ID 8863 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

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