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2024 President · New Hampshire

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 380 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.87%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.653 − 47.873 = 2.780
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.780) = 4.220
  4. Absolute miss = |4.220| = 4.220

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89049, race ID 8848 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: a