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2024 President · Nevada

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 940 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (-3.099) = 12.099
  4. Absolute miss = |12.099| = 12.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89048, race ID 8857 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: a