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2024 President · Minnesota

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,278 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 46.68%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.923 − 46.683 = 4.240
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.240) = 3.761
  4. Absolute miss = |3.761| = 3.761

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89047, race ID 8823 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: a