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2024 President · Georgia

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 2,682 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.192) = 1.192
  4. Absolute miss = |1.192| = 1.192

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89045, race ID 8781 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

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