2024 President · Wisconsin
Redfield & Wilton Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 746 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%
R+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.859) = 2.859
- Absolute miss = |2.859| = 2.859
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89036, race ID 8905 (538 database).
population: lv