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2024 Senate · Nevada

CNN/SSRS · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 683 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (1.643) = 7.357
  4. Absolute miss = |7.357| = 7.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89027, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv