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2024 Senate · New York

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 58.1% · Republican 38.7%

D+19.4

The certified result

Democrat 58.81% · Republican 40.52%

D+18.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.1 − 38.7 = 19.40
  2. Actual margin = 58.815 − 40.524 = 18.291
  3. Signed miss = 19.40 − (18.291) = 1.109
  4. Absolute miss = |1.109| = 1.109

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89022, race ID 9524 (538 database).

population: lv