Skip to content

2024 President · Illinois

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.4% · Republican 41.6%

D+16.8

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 43.48%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.4 − 41.6 = 16.80
  2. Actual margin = 54.371 − 43.475 = 10.896
  3. Signed miss = 16.80 − (10.896) = 5.904
  4. Absolute miss = |5.904| = 5.904

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89016, race ID 8794 (538 database).

population: lv